Sunday, April 24, 2005

Beware the stock of Google

I've been very wary of Google since their IPO. I remain so. Valued more than heavyweights Viacom, Disney, GM, Ford, and HP, Google to me is that pop stock that people whine about how much money they lost on after the fact. I'll give them their snaps, they've been introducing as many projects as possible to capitalize on their opportunities since going public. As an investement, though, I'd go with conservative Yahoo over Google. Google ads are all the rage right now, but sooner or later advertisers and web operators are going to realize that Google is an unecessary go between. Web sites will learn how to communicate who their audiences are to potential advertisors, and by doing so they will learn that they can earn a better ad rate by doing so. Advertisors will learn that it isn't Google that provides them with their wonderful results, but rather those indiviual websites, and that they two can save a couple of points by going around Google. Once this occurs, and it will, Google will get squeezed out of the third party ad provider market. Once that occurs, kiss the value of that Google stock goodbye. Meanwhile, Yahoo will be the little guy that keeps plugging along, providing consistent, reliable returns.

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