Fiery Fred Thompson

I've been waiting for two things from Fred Thompson. The first is some obvious fire in his belly. The second is for his campaign to sell me on him. Not personally sell me, mind you, but rather sell me in the way that successful campaigns convert large numbers of supporters, because that's how you win general elections. Neither had happened thus far, but if what I'm reading about tonight's debate is any indicator, the fire has finally showed up. I can say this-I'll be watching much more closely in the coming days.

On Fred Thompson

I eschewed tonight's Republican debate but I did watch Fred Thompson's presidential announcement on The Tonight Show. I have an open mind when it comes to Thompson, so before you Fredophiles out there light into me, remember that I'm not opposed to him. I even like him a bit. Having said that, I didn't like his appearance all that much. Fred Thompson is going to be his own worst enemy. Sometimes he has all the charisma of a mushroom growing on a mossy log. That is going to contribute to both people's opinion of his work ethic (an unfair accusation that already seems to have stuck) and his likeability. His ideas are most certainly good, but remember that a lot of voters never get past the superficial. In fact, that's why so many politicians now appear on late night television-to crack a few jokes and appeal to the superficiality of portions of the electorate. On top of that, he has the slower speech of an old southerner. Again, nothing wrong with that per se, but some northerners are still going to have trouble getting past it-in fact, it may reinforce some of their negative opinions about his work ethic. I hope his campaign realizes that some of his own personality traits are going to be stumbling blocks with some voters, even as they are positives for others. My concern is that there will be voters who take his traits negatively than positively. Unless, of course, he ends every episode with the Law & Order "duhn-duhn."

Oh, just one more thought, and this one might get me crucified by the Frediacs, but Mr. Thompson, know your audience! I always cringe when I watch a politician go on Leno or Letterman and he or she is almost completely serious. There is a time for that, and late night talk shows are not that place. People want a little laughter before bed, and they certainly don't want to be reminded of the serious, humorless Bob Dole of 1996. They want to see if you have a lighter side to your personality, if you are someone they'd like to have a beer with. Don't like that? Then don't do the late night talk shows.

Is it really that amazing?

Captain Ed on Fred Thompson's recent strong showing in polls:

It's amazing how far a non-candidate can go in a race.

Is it really, though? Non-candidates don't get as much scrutiny from the press because their stories are still in the feel-good realm. They don't have to take whithering attacks from their opponents because those individuals-real, announced candidates-have to use their resources to combat other real, announced candidates. They don't have the opportunity to screw up at debates. In other words, they haven't faced the live fire of a Presidential campaign yet.

I'm not down on Fred Thompson. Honest, Fredpostles out there, I'm not. I just can't get into the guy until he throws his fat in the fire and proves himself a worthy candidate. He's masterfully played his pre-candidacy. Now let's see what he's got as candidate.

Bad idea, Fred

Before my comments fill up with Fred Thompson supporters, let me just say that I'm not opposed to Fred Thompson's campaign. As someone who is hell bent on staying undecided until late in the year, though, I'm filled with a healthy dose of skepticism. And if Thompson goes through with this, mark my words, he's sunk.

Thompson, his wife and advisers in Washington and Tennessee also are drawing up plans for a new style of campaign that would rely heavily on technology and his celebrity status to avoid some of the slogging through the snow in Iowa and New Hampshire that is normally required of White House hopefuls.

The advisers say Thompson, who plays District Attorney Arthur Branch on NBC's "Law & Order," is researching ways to use technology -- including the Web, videoconferences and teleconferences -- to harness the enthusiasm for his candidacy among grass-roots bloggers and activists. The campaign also would rely on large events, such as those that have in part supplanted country-store campaigning for some in the Democratic field.

"Well-known candidates can do things a little differently," explained one adviser. "You show up, you're accessible, but you don't have to go to every county seat several times.

Originally, the idea of a late-start campaign for Thompson looked like something of a lark, but the phantom candidacy is accelerating.

Not too long ago, a lot of smart people were saying that technology was going to revolutionize business. The internet and video were going to remove a large expense for businesses-travel. Companies would be able to have virtual meetings with all of their clients, any time they wanted. Something funny happened on the way to that utopia. The technology got better, but face to face is still preferred. Many businesses have learned that the best way to make connections and develop relationships with people is still face to face. There is an impersonal nature to using to technology, and the relationships do not develop as well. If Thompson does this, he will not be your 2008 nominee. One of Thompson's advantages is his celebrity, but only if he puts in the face time.

A foreshadow of Fred Thompson stumbling blocks

I've been watching the love fest with Fred Thompson with great interest. I'm not a Fred Thompson acolyte, but I am open to hearing what he's all about. I'm a realist, too, which means that I know that Thompson, like all presidential candidates, will not have a smooth run of things if he chooses to join the race. Right now, he has the benefit of not having to stump and not having to be a target for other candidates and the media. If he runs, the magnifying glass will be on him, and the spotlight will be hot. So if you are already heady for a Thompson run, it might be best to prepare yourself for some of the issues that might be problematic for him amongst conservatives. If he can handle them deftly, then he deserves to be a front runner. If not, then he'll just be another candidate that doesn't meet the high bar conservatives are setting for this race.