Bird flu deaths drop in migratory birds

This is good news that you probably won't hear about anywhere else:

“In the first half of 2007, countries reported fewer deaths of wild and migratory birds, which could indicate the disease is coming closer to the end of a cycle. Reversely poultry flocks still continue to be infected in some countries and that shows the international community needs to keep up its high level of prevention and control measures of the disease in animals,” commented Dr Bernard Vallat, Director General of the OIE.

The disease remains endemic in at least three countries ( Indonesia , Nigeria and Egypt ) and continues to appear in previously unaffected countries. These events offer valuable opportunity to further identify the complex issues in dealing with the disease.

Continued vigilance is necessary, of course, for a virus that has been as lethal as this one. Just the same, the world didn't come to an end yet because of the bird flu, and don't expect the media to remind you of that.

Bird flu futures

Yep, that's right, there is a bird flu futures market now.

Organizers hope to recruit at least 100 epidemiologists, veterinarians and other medical experts from around the world for the two-year project. They will be asked to join an online trading system akin to agricultural futures markets, in which investor buys contracts that businesses will be able to deliver certain volumes of, say, corn or pork bellies.

But in this project, the contracts represent not the likelihood of a good corn harvest but the odds that deadly bird flu will infect a human in Hong Kong by July 1.

"Yes" contracts on that prediction are currently trading at 43 cents. That means the experts think there's a 43 percent chance of that occurring.

You can't join in on this futures market, as it is only for the "experts" and designed to be a predictive indicator for the bird flu. Too bad, because there ain't quite anything like betting on the death of an anonnymous person in Hoong Kong.