It hasn't bottomed out

One month ago, I thought he market was approaching a value point. I no longer think so. After talking with a lot of people, I've come to find that October was brutal in numerous segments of the economy. As a result, a significant minority of business people are scared and hoarding their first quarter cash. Thus, I expect a self fulfilling prophecy of a rough first quarter. Some of that money will come back in the second quarter, but only some of it. If enough comes back that quarter, I think things will stabilize by quarter 3. But as panicky as everyone is right now, it won't take much to force this instability into quarter 3 and 4 of next year.

The Big 3, A Bailout, and 'Green' Cars

Something about the stories on the potential auto industry bailout has really been bothering me. Time after time, I see it asserted that Detroit needs the money in order to re-tool their plants to make electric or hybrid cars. Really? If so, that may be the argument that kills the little bit of doubt I have about opposing the bailout.

It isn't as though I oppose those types of cars. If people want them, I say sell 'em. But here's the problem-they don't solve any of the big three's problems. They still won't be able to make high quality, profitable, traditional cars, a product for which there would still be a large volume potential. Instead, they'd be betting their futures on something which is still a niche vehicle that sells at a premium.

Four months ago, that might have made sense. Today, when gas is under $2 and people are cutting back their spending, it makes no sense what so ever. Those vehicles work for Toyota because they have a strong, profitable passenger car program and they can absorb the wild swings in demand that are possible with their high margin hybrids. Detroit doesn't have that luxury. They would need to rely on those vehicles to replace their lost truck and SUV sales, and that just isn't going to happen for a while.

Former Senator Ted Stevens

Despite the strategic consequences, this is a net good:

ANCHORAGE, Alaska – Sen. Ted Stevens, the longest serving Republican in Senate history, narrowly lost his re-election bid Tuesday, marking the downfall of a Washington political power and Alaska icon who couldn't survive a conviction on federal corruption charges. His defeat by Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich moves Senate Democrats within two seats of a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority.

People like Ted Stevens did much to put the Republican party in the bind that it now finds itself. This is a big short term set back, but it will be better for the party over the long term.

Jay Walk All-Stars or Real Poltical Point?

There is a YouTube video blazing around the blogosphere that shows Obama voters getting elementary questions incorrect. I'm very disappointed to see so many on the right indulging in this video. That exact same video could very easily be made of McCain voters. In fact, the idea for this isn't even new-Jay Leno has been doing a similar skit for years. In this incarnation, it is little more than a lazy 'gotcha' moment, and I thought the right was better than this.

A Thought on Life

The pro-choice supporters base their entire argument on a woman's right to choose for their own body by blurring the line at which life begins, and they do so quite successfully. So why doesn't the pro-life movement wage a battle on the point at which a body begins to form? If a body begins to form at the splitting of cells after conception, then we clearly have two bodies within one, and the host body clearly would not have the right to choose death for the developing body it hosts. I think that is what bothers me most about the current political debate. Of course you can make decisions for your own body, and your own body alone. You aren't, however, allowed to make negative decisions for someone else's body, and a child's body begins shortly after conception.

A Brief Gas Thought

The price of gas will likely drop below $2 a gallon. But how low of a price can we really afford?

(If you don't get it, stop and think really hard why a plunging gas price might make it more difficult to afford for some-to-many.)

Electricity Thieves

I just saw a commercial on the news about a special report that particular channel will have on energy thieves. I'm sure they'll make their study look like hard work, but I'd like to share the lazy man's way to look for electricity thieves. First, look for that one or two incredible Christmas light displays in your local area. Start there. Most are honest people who pay their bills, but my experience over the years says that those who put on extravagant light displays stand a higher likelihood of tapping into their electricity line before the meter. So enjoy those lights-you just might be paying for them.

Free Money!

I'd like to start this post off by saying (in a very Cher Horowitz manner), "my bad!"

Why am I making this mea culpa? Well, because I supported the original $700 billion bailout. I supported that bailout because the credit markets were frozen by fear, and that stood to seize up the entire economy faster than running your engine without oil. Little did I know that the bailout would become the biggest Matthew Lesko scheme since, well, Matthew Lesko.

Don't get me wrong. I knew that companies outside the financial industry would be lining up with their hands palm-up. But I was naive on three counts. First, I thought that the Fed and the the Treasury would use the funds specifically as outlined in the bill. Second, I didn't think that other companies would stampede the trough as they have-I expected more of a subdued rush. Third, I didn't think that even congress was so stupid as to hand the cash out in wheel barrows to all takers.

Skeptic though I am, even I did not anticipate the way this would become a Lesko book. The latest absurdity is Detroit. If any three companies ever needed bankruptcy, it was these three. They are getting their tails kicked by foreign competition for two reasons: The UAW's power over them has saddled them with uncompetitive labor costs, and the way CAFE regulations are structured, their profitability became tied to vehicles they can no longer sell in great volume. Bankruptcy can solve one of those problems and alleviate the other.

I write this as the son of a man who has been a damn hard working, blue collar worker his entire life. Yet for many years of his adult life, he made a wage that gave him a comfortable living, and he did it without a union. I don't want to begrudge autoworkers a nice life. But then again, neither have Toyota and Honda. The UAW moved beyond that though. They got greedy, all the while saying that they were doing it to protect future autoworkers. As my barber said recently, what about those future autoworkers now?

Until the U.S. auto industry solves the problem of their unions and move into line with Toyota and Honda on the labor front, they are screwed. That $25-$50 billion will be gone in a heartbeat, and we'll either need to ante up more to prop the "Big Three" up, or they'll eventually fold, leaving the remainder of their employees in a lurch-or employed by Toyota, Honda, Volkswagen, and others, where their wages will be in line with their peers. And still better than most others, I might add, including numerous white collar workers. The line on the bail out should have been drawn weeks ago, but without a doubt it needs to be drawn now.

Deep Breaths, Everyone

To my friends on the right: The world is not coming to an end. Yes, some unpleasant legislation will become law. Yes, conservatism needs to get the house in order. Barack Obama is not the anti-Christ, nor will he be above scrutiny. Even 'progressive' Democrats will have to respond to constituent pressure...at least they will if they have any sense of professional self-preservation. And conservatism is not dead.

To my friends on the left: Enjoy this heady feeling. Enjoy your ascendancy. Enjoy imagining a generation of 'progressive' ideals. For the next two months, your side is the cat's ass. Just realize that reality has a funny way of slapping you in the face quickly once your candidate takes the oath office. We on the right witnessed this first hand about four years ago. To make matters worse for you, you have no foil, no strong opposition, no fall guy for anything that goes wrong on your watch. Your overwhelming victory means the buck will stop with the Democratic party. That means that you'll have very little maneuverability when things don't work, and the fingers of the American voter will be pointed straight at you. Have fun with that.

Why Republicans Have Lost Big in Two Straight Elections

It would take a book for me to explore all of the reasons Republicans have lost big in two straight elections, but I think it boils down to one key issue. A sizeable portion of Americans had put their faith in conservative ideals over the past 25 years, and as recently as four years ago, we thought that number was growing. But a funny thing happened. Too many so-called conservatives turned out to not be very conservative at all once the voters put them into office. The Republican majorities, most of whom ran on conservative ideals, did not live up to those ideals. That broken faith sent 'Reagan Democrats' back across the aisle, splintered the several strains of conservatism, and left some dispirited conservatives to sit on their hands. In essence, the public woke up and said, "if I'm going to elect someone who is going to act like a Democrat, I may as well go with the real thing." It is going to be very, very difficult to make amends for the broken faith.

This is Weird

It has been a long time since I've gone to bed on election night knowing who the next president would be. I believe the exact year was 1996, and that year I knew who the next president would be for many nights before election day. That might be the best thing to come of this particular election. We needed a decisive election to help tamp down the fear of electoral shenanigans coming from both sides of the aisle.

Having said that, good night all. Democrats, enjoy your night of celebration. Conservatives, the sun will rise tomorrow. I promise.

Hope

Tonight, many of you are swelled with hope. Despite our political differences, I hope that your hope is well founded. I see no need to put political persuasion above good of country, and thus, I do not hope for the abject failure of President Elect Barack Obama. despite my opposition to much of his proposed policies. But hope does at times fade. I hope that many of you enjoy, nay, relish tonight. The next four years will be highlighted by many peaks and valleys, and those valleys will test the strength of the hope you feel tonight.

Defining Obama's Presidency

I'm sure many a reader will slide their eyes across that headline and think, "Defining his Presidency? He just got elected!" Well, hear me out on this. He will have a choice once in office. He can be the conduit for pent up liberal/progessive momentum, or he can be his own man, a leader. If chooses the former, and I fear that he will, his presidency will be a disaster. If he chooses the latter, however, he may just have a chance at a second term and a positive presidency.

Love him or hate him, Bill Clinton was more "his own man" than "conduit," and because of that, history will neither relegate him to the dustbin nor label his presidency a net negative, despite his flaws and errors. Obama has a much tougher road ahead of him than Clinton did during our vacation from history. Thus, he needs to be his own man, a leader, and a significantly better one than Clinton.

This isn't to say that it would be a presidency that conservatives would at all be pleased with. It is just to say that he can find a way to avoid being the next Jimmy Carter, and that way is by leading without giving away too much of his influence to the netroots.

Fox News Projects Barack Obama the next POTUS

Congratulations to President-Elect Barack Obama. I hold no ill will toward the man, and I hope that my conservative friends and colleagues also separate the man from his policies. Now, as for those policies...the fight against them begins now.

A Brief Look Forward

Things are by no means over on this election night, but it certainly doesn't look very good. The right is about to be cast into a very dark place. This doesn't mean the right has been condemned to 40 years in the wilderness; after all, fighting against the majority has seemed to be the strongest glue to hold the coalition's various parts together over the years. Unfortunately, that's no way to lead a country. The right's house is in disarray, and we cannot just rely on being an out gunned minority party to bring order back. There is a lot of hard work ahead.

And I should add one thing: This hard work needs to be done quickly. 2010 will be an important bounce back opportunity. No majorities will be possible, but the right needs to move closer to equilibrium with the left if it wants to have a chance in 2012.

John Murtha Wins. Really, Western PA?

I'm at a loss on this one. John Murtha wins re-election despite calling his constituents racists and rednecks. That tells me something about his district, although I'm not sure which of the following that is:

1. They heard Murtha call them rednecks and racists and thought, "Hey, he really does understand us."
2. That while their status as rednecks and racists may be up in the air, their status as kind of thick is confirmed.
3. That they are so beholden to the Democratic party that they can have abuse heaped on them by a Democrat because "he's one of us."
4. They don't take Murtha all that seriously, which is disturbing considering he is their representative.

Maybe it is all of the above.

If Obama Wins Tonight...

...and it is looking favorable for him, let's just hope that retirement communities in Florida don't riot over the results. Nobody wants that. Nobody.

In and Out Voter

I was in and out of my voting locale in near record time, and I voted in the ever busy "after work" hour. I saw no signs of hijinks or shenanigans in my little burgh. Of course, I didn't partake in the candy on the ballot table, so I'll never know if it was spiked.

Will Obama be Good for Businesses?

Probably not, especially if you are in the coal or energy business, which in an interview last January with the San Francisco Chronicle he said he'd bankrupt for building new coal plants. And this leads me to a question about this election. There have been a lot of substantive evidence that a Barack Obama presidency would not be good for America, much like there was ample evidence 4 years ago that John Kerry would not be good for America. The difference is, everything stuck to John Kerry, and something like this would have been a bombshell. When it comes to Obama, however, it seems like every piece of evidence hits a brick wall before it even gets to him. I get the feeling that a large part of the American public has invested an unrealistic expectation of what they would be getting with this man as President, evidence to the contrary be damned. And if they elect him on Tuesday, they aren't going to get what they expect.

Sweet Jesus, McCain Appears on SNL

I've often ripped Bob Dole for not letting his sense of humor show through in 1996. Unfortunately, John McCain did so in 2008, and in doing so, he turned McCain-Palin into the K-Mart-Dollar Store of political brands. Tonight, McCain was on the opening segment of Saturday Night Live, and he undercut the credibility of his campaign with the skit that he did. I am so disappointed in his choice right now. "McCain-Fine Gold" was funny, but it did not augment his case to be president whatsoever. What the hell was he thinking?