NIE: Iran shelved nuke arms program in 2003

This certainly is good news. I do have a couple of comments on it.

1. Even this report admits that Iran is "keeping its options open," to use the New York Times' words.
2. The 16 agencies behind the NIE "do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons." That's disturbing and to a certain extent negates the significance of their assessment that Iran shelved the program in 2003.
   
3. Something else happened in the region in 2003 that just happened to lead to the dismantling of Libya's WMD programs. Hmmm.
4. The report states that Iran could still produce a nuclear weapon as early as 2009-a not too distant date.
5. If early in, say, an Obama or Clinton presidency, Iran were to announce that they have a nuclear weapon, the first inclination of the political left will be to blame Bush. If that were to occur, this report needs to be brought back into the light because it handcuffs the administration unless something else happens.
6. I'll be curious to see if this report will be trumpeted by all of those who have brutalized U.S. intelligence agencies for much of the past 6 years. If so, what makes this intelligence so much more believable, other than it confirms their own beliefs?
7. I hope it is just the cynic in me that wonders if this is a CYA job by the agencies behind the NIE. This isn't really a good time for them to be wrong as this report all but ensures that Iran will have the upper hand in diplomacy at least until a new president is sworn in because it effectively removes the use of force as a legitimate threat.

Update
The Weekly Standard asks 5 very relevant questions.

Iraq, Iran, proxy wars, and a summer offensive

It will pay to keep a close eye on whether this comes to pass this summer:

Iran is secretly forging ties with al-Qaida elements and Sunni Arab militias in Iraq in preparation for a summer showdown with coalition forces intended to tip a wavering US Congress into voting for full military withdrawal, US officials say.

"Iran is fighting a proxy war in Iraq and it's a very dangerous course for them to be following. They are already committing daily acts of war against US and British forces," a senior US official in Baghdad warned. "They [Iran] are behind a lot of high-profile attacks meant to undermine US will and British will, such as the rocket attacks on Basra palace and the Green Zone [in Baghdad]. The attacks are directed by the Revolutionary Guard who are connected right to the top [of the Iranian government]."

The official said US commanders were bracing for a nationwide, Iranian-orchestrated summer offensive, linking al-Qaida and Sunni insurgents to Tehran's Shia militia allies, that Iran hoped would trigger a political mutiny in Washington and a US retreat. "We expect that al-Qaida and Iran will both attempt to increase the propaganda and increase the violence prior to Petraeus's report in September [when the US commander General David Petraeus will report to Congress on President George Bush's controversial, six-month security "surge" of 30,000 troop reinforcements]," the official said.

Logically, this only makes sense. With congress's vacillation on the war, and with key dates being bandied about, it would only make sense that our most significant state enemy in the area, Iran, would work behind the scenes to try to drive us out of Iraq and claim the country as another of its vassals (see Syria). If Iran does ratchet up the violence this summer, the blood of many U.S. soldiers and Iraqis will be on the hands of a congress which has done nothing but act irresponsibly in a time of war.

Iran to release British sailors

This seems unusual.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has met with some of the 15 British military personnel held in Iranian custody for almost two weeks, shortly after pardoning the group and vowing to set them free.

There has to be a backstory here, and if so, eventually that will be the story. It is difficult to believe Iran would return the sailors for no reason.

Muqtada vacations in Iran

It looks like Iraq's most recent boogie man, Muqtada al-Sadr has picked up and left for the friendly confines of Iran while the U.S. implements the surge strategy. I'd like to say that this is significant, but it probably isn't. The Sadr Militias have become bigger than the man and are likely self sufficient and requiring his leadership. About all this accomplishes is making him look like the yellow bellied coward that he is.