Reason has left the arena

John McCain's only hope this election was a strong, reasoned public. Then he began co-opting Obama rhetoric. In doing so, he ceded reason, and as a result, reason has left the arena. Emotion and rhetoric will rule this election, and that is going to leave John McCain wondering what could have been. If you think he is bitter now, imagine how bitter he'll be after Jimmy Carter the Second (history will determine if Obama is Jimmy Carter the Lessor, and may God help us if he is).

The McCain-Palin Courtship

This is pretty funny.

Thank you, unnamed campaign!

Dear Unnamed Campaign-

Thank you for inviting me to your conference call today. 15 minutes wasn't a lot of notice for a guy who works for a living, and unfortunately I don't get instant email updates. Perhaps that was what you wanted, who knows?

Sincerely,
Jib

The Media Love Fest for Obama

One big topic of chatter this week has been the McCain camp's complaint that the media is spending way too much time on the Obama pilgrimage and way too little time on the Sorta-Straight Talk Express. Frankly, the McCain camp should be thankful. For the press, familiarity breeds contempt. The more time they spend with him now means the earlier they'll turn on him like half-starved cannibals.

Motivations Behind the Iraq Plans

The great debate is on again: When should we leave Iraq? In this corner, we have Barack Obama's 16 month plan. And in this corner, we have John McCain's longer range plan, one that could see a substantial U.S. presence in Iraq for years and basing rights for our children's lifetime and beyond. But really, what are the motivations behind each plan?

For most Americans, the 16 month plan is very seductive. Americans are not a war loving lot despite their willingness to fight for security and liberty. The Long War has been exactly that, and the fatigue in the general populace is palpable.

In addition to fatigue, there is this notion that pulling out now, while Iraq is stabilized, is a chance to make a legitimate claim to victory over the insurgency in Iraq. A quick pull out may very well allow that claim to be staked.

The long range plan proves to be a much more difficult sell. A fatigued public cannot fathom a significant U.S. military presence in Iraq that lasts until 2012 or 2020. Long term military deployments such as this are just not something that Americans have historical experience with.

If you listen to Iraq's Defense Minister, that long range presence is exactly what we will need in order to claim a victory that the history books will recognize. He says that it will be 2012 before Iraq can even handle all of its own internal security, and that it may be 2020 before the country can reliably protect itself from external threats. If his estimates are correct, a 16 month pull out, while possibly giving the U.S. a tenuous claim to victory, would leave the current Iraqi state horribly vulnerable to internal and external calamity.

So which plan is best? Well, the answer just may lay in your motivation. If you have a short term outlook, then getting our troops out of harms way with a veneer of victory is likely the goal. The future of the nation at the crossroads of the Middle East is wrought with peril in this outlook, but it is nothing if not expedient.

On the other hand, if a stable, allied state in the heart of the Middle East is the goal, then there is little choice but to stay until such time that the Iraqi government can successfully provide it's most important service to the Iraqi people: Providing internal and external security for the Iraqi people. Additionally, if Iraq's long term viability and prosperity is a goal, then long range basing rights a la Germany and Japan must be negotiated with the Iraqi government. The presence of a U.S. base(s), while perhaps not always popular, would have a tempering affect on internal Iraqi instability while acting as a very obvious trip wire to deter external threats to the nation.

So when you consider the plans of the competing presidential candidates, ask yourself this: What motivates my support of one plan over another? Do I just want this over because I'm tired of it all, or do I want us to make the effort to do this right so our presence today is appreciated by future generations of Iraqis, not regretted.

Q: What is John McCain's best friend right now?

A: A mini Mike Huckabee surge.

It is close to impossible for John McCain to lose the Republican nomination now that Mitt Romney is out of the race. He has enough delegates racked up that it would take a complete collapse on his campaign's part to blow the nomination. If Mike Huckabee can make a semi-serious run at McCain, though, it would force a lot of conservatives who dislike McCain into his corner against a candidate they have trouble taking seriously. It wouldn't make them avid McCain fans, but it would speed along their acceptance of him.

Romney response to McCain's wise-assed quip

I have been, and remain, lukewarm to Mitt Romney's presidential candidacy. His response to John McCain's response to his opposition (follow that?) of the immigration bill is sharp, though:

I guess it just shows that, even when he's wrong, he's amusing.

That one sentence is incredible. In it, Romney mute's McCain's comment about varmint guns. He also makes McCain look small for making the comment. Finally, he holds his ground respectably. One sentence does not a President make, but it was enough to make me at least consider Romney as potentially presidential. Still, Romney has a big weakness, and that is that he currently is as vulnerable to the flip-flop charge as John Kerry was in 2004.