Food for thought on Iranian nukes

I was reading through various columnists today when I came across the column "Jews Wake Up!" by Caroline Glick. This paragraph got me thinking.

Since it is possible to destroy Israel with just one bomb, the Americans should be asking themselves what Iran needs all those other bombs for. There are senior military sources in the US who have been warning the administration to take into consideration that the day that Iran attacks Israel with a nuclear bomb, 10 cities in the US and Europe are liable to also be attacked with nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, no one is listening to these voices today.

I'm not concerned with the point of Glick's column, just the significance of this one paragraph. From a strategic standpoint, Iran nuking Israel and Israel alone would be an act of pure national suicide. Given the Ahmadinejad's public statements the past year, it would be fair to say that he does not fear the destruction of Iran if it furthers the cause of Shia Islam and that of the 12th Imam. Still, even I don't think he is that crazy. An attack on Israel would invite a nuclear response against Iran by Israel's allies, but what if Iran could forestall that counterattack? How do you do that? By creating chaos in Israel's nuclear allies by attacking their cities while attacking Israel. Chances are Iran would still be obliterated, but now there is that small chance that Iran might actually be able to sue for peace without being anhilated. Either way, in Ahmadinejad's mind, Iran gets its victory over Israel and furthers the cause of Islam and the 12th Imam. In one situation, Iran is destoyed and it's martyrdom is a call to arms for like-minded Muslims. In the other situation, Iran declares total victory over the West and survives.

How likely is this scenario? Well, it would certainly be tough for Iran to pull off. If they acquire missiles capable of hitting Europe and the United States, the counter-attack would be on its way before the Iranian missiles hit the ground. If they tried to smuggle nukes into Europe or the U.S., the odds are in favor of at least one weapon being discovered in time for the others to be rooted out.

The big point here is this: When it comes to Iran and nuclear weapons, I think a lot of people in Europe and the United States are disinterested because Iran's preoccupation with Israel makes them feel safe from Iranian nukes. But nobody should feel safe. If Iran is predisposed to a first nuclear strike against Israel, then it only makes sense for them to deliver nuclear terror into the nations capable of retribution as well. It would be their only outside chance of surviving.