This is going to be a "Dewey Defeats Truman" type election.  My educated guess is that 40% of people have fully made up their mind to go to the polls and vote for Kerry.  Likewise, 40% have set in stone their decision to vote Bush.  Another 5% are probably going to vote Kerry, and 5% will probably vote Bush, but they will be highly influenceable between now and then.  The wild card is the last 10%.  I think that last 10% will make their decision once they get in that booth.  They make this election completely unpredictable.  I have no science or research to back that up, so I will not speculate heavily on what that 10% might do once in the voting booth, but I think they might surprise the press.

 

Some predictors:

*If Bin Laden is caught and Iraq remains stable, Bush will lose.  Anglo states have shown a tendency to toss leaders out of office once they perceive that leader to have won a war, even if he hasn't yet.

*The economy will have no bearing on the election unless it worsens.  The press has been too good at turning good news into bad news for this president for him to capitalize on a good economy.  Caveat to this-if the Bush Boom becomes a household phrase, Bush wins by a large margin.

*Running on raising taxes could come back to bite the Democrats in the butt.  People don't care about the deficit, they care about making the payment on the car they overextended themselves to buy.

*If there is a major act of terrorism on election day, and the election is not postponed, Bush wins a landslide, but Kerry contests the election, contending too many voters were disenfranchised by their inability to vote during a national emergency.  The press will not bring up the present Democratic opposition to planning on postponing the election.

*If a major act of terrorism on election day is thwarted within a month of the election, Bush wins going away, with no serious controversy.

*If there is a major act of terrorism on election, and the election is postponed, Bush will lose.  He will lose because Kerry et al will claim that the postponement is a heavy handed act by Bush to illegally remain in power.

*Kerry will stick his foot three feet down his throat at some point between now and November, and it will cost him 5% in the polls.

*If the Republican Convention is sabotaged by the loony left anarchists, it will give Bush a big bump, provided the NYPD isn't shown beating the hell out of protestors like the Chicago PD was in 1968.