The quiet decider in '06?

In this off year election, motivating the base is huge because in a normal off year election, it is the base that makes the difference. I've been getting a little nervous about that independent, unaffiliated voter group this year, though. If they are motivated to turn out, they are going to decide this election, and nobody has really paid that close of attention to them this year. Stuart Rothenberg sounds the warning:

But even if Republicans turn out, GOP candidates could find themselves in hot water in dozens of districts that they ordinarily should hold. That's because independent voters are not acting the way they normally do.

Independents may not turn out at the same rate as strong partisans in midterm elections, but for dozens of Republicans trying to hold their seats in a potentially strong Democratic wave -- particularly those running in marginal districts -- independents will be plentiful enough at the polls to separate winners from losers. In Connecticut, for example, independents (unaffiliated voters) constitute a plurality of all state voters.

Normally, independents break roughly evenly between the two parties. In the 2000 presidential election, independents went for then-Texas Gov. Bush over Al Gore, 47 percent to 45 percent. Four years later, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) bested Bush 49 percent to 48 percent among independents.

This year, that's not close to being the case. "There just aren't any independents this year," joked one Republican strategist I talked with recently. "There are Republicans, Democrats and soft Democrats."

The good news is that if that unaffiliated, independent voter does swing congress to the Democrats, their victory may end up being hollow. That voting group can swing pretty wildly in two years and could end up back in the Republican court in '08 if mismanaged by the Democrats, which is a distinct possibility.