Monday, February 04, 2008

An excellent point on the state of the Republican Party

At times during this race for the Republican presidential nomination, things just haven't made much sense. Why is it conservatives can seem to be of one or two mindsets on the candidates, but the results moved towards a third or fourth candidate? Well, Patrick Ruffini makes an excellent point on how the math can work out:

Some assume that because conservatives are the largest bloc of GOP voters, their preferred candidate (Romney) ought to win. And that if he doesn’t, this large bloc has slipped into minority status and/or irrelevance. This analysis is fundamentally flawed.

It doesn’t just matter who you win, but how much you win them by. A 15-point lead with conservatives doesn’t do you much good if McCain’s lead amongst the smaller moderate bloc is 30 points. A McCain victory wouldn’t mean that moderates dominate the GOP; it would mean that for whatever reason conservatives didn’t think Mitt Romney was the second coming of Ronald Reagan and were divided.

Of course, this means that some of you conservatives out there that are holding your noses and going McCain, not because you like him but because you think he's inevitable, are making a particularly obtuse choice.

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