Monday, February 04, 2008

Prediction Time: John McCain Edition

If John McCain wins the Republican nomination, I predict that the Democrats' nominee will try to do at least three things to him in the general election. The first thing that candidate will try to do is prod McCain into losing his temper as many times as possible. When John McCain loses his temper, it isn't a pretty sight. Second, they will attempt to show him as physically tired, something that will probably be very evident on a 70 plus year old man trying to campaign 12 hours or more a day. Third, they will try to strand him in a political no man's land by moving to the center and taking away as many moderates as possible. I'm not sure if they'll be able to maneuver in such a way as to further the wedge between Senator McCain and some conservatives, but if they see an opening, I'm positive they'll try. If they do those things, I can see McCain losing in a landslide, and that's part of the reason I hate the concept of electability. The concept of electability is fine when you are comparing a lower tier candidate like Ron Paul to a higher tier candidate like John McCain, but amongst the top tier candidates it usually falls to poll numbers that are meaningless this far out from the general election. The fallacy of electability is the trap I see a lot of Republicans falling into as they migrate to John McCain right now, and I can see the Democrats taking advantage of that in the general election.

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