Revolution or World War

Spurred on by this article on Japanese and Americans opinions on the possibility of another World War, I've spent a lot of time tonight thinking about global conflict. My thought process can be a sinewy path, but bear with me.

Not to long ago, in the comments to one of his posts, I told Owen at Boots & Sabers that I would not be surprised if the United States faced some sort of second Revolution late in my lifetime, or during the lifetime of my as of yet unborn kids or grandchildren. I'm not the type who lives in a bunker and arms myself to the teeth; I can just see our general discourse in society taking us down that path. I think that there is a greater likelihood that we will find ourselves in a painful, difficult global war during that same time period, though, and if so, I think that our general tendency to draw together when attack from the outside would eliminate the possibility or need for revolution.

My true concern is that we are in a pre-global conflict stage similar to the one the major powers found themselves in during the late 19th century and early 20th. A time where military powers began to head towards something of an equilibrium, when small skirmishes and new technologies where the general rule, and nobody was really able to put it all together to see where the world was headed. That's what I see now. The information age means that we can only maintain technological superiority as long as we are constantly developing awesome new weapons systems. It doesn't take long for everyone to figure out current weapons systems and develope their own, and it doesn't even take much money to buy the last generation of weapons systems anymore. As the Chinas of the world, or the North Koreas, or the Irans, think that they can challenge us to at least a draw, they will use those weapons systems. And the second they do, there will be a huge chain reaction of sides being taken. If we do head in that direction, Asia, the Middle East, and the Pacific nations will be where the action is at, with Russia being a huge wild card for Europe.

I think I've discussed this before, and I'll say again, I sincerely hope that I'm very wrong on this. I like my nice, comfortable, peaceful life (and that's why I support the war on terror). I don't want it upended by total war. Just the same, as an amateur history buff (and I stress amateur), I don't really like the signs I'm seeing. We could be in for a bumpy 50 years.