SCOTUS vacancy

With Sandra Day O'Connor's resignation, the speculation has commenced as to Bush's nominee for a replacement (the news media must be thanking their lucky stars they'll have something to talk about for the next 4 plus weeks). Alberto Gonzales's name is coming up a lot as a favorite for the Bush nomination. Personally, though Bush may make that nomination, I'm not too concerned about it. I don't think Gonzales has a snowball's chance of winning his nomination. He certainly will not receive strong support from many conservatives, and if Democrats make any attempt to obstruct him, he'll whither on the vine, and with him will die much of President Bush's political capital. If Bush were to be rebuffed by his own party over Gonzales, the lame duck label is going to set in quick.

Personally, I like the thinking that is going on over at Powerline:

If Bush nominates (Janice Rogers) Brown, the Dems will go stark raving mad--even more so, I think, than they would over the three favorites. If that's possible. But their craziness would strike many people as bizarre, especially given that the Senate just confirmed Brown to the Court of Appeals a couple of weeks ago. Further, many people would notice that the last time we had one of these bouts of hysteria was over Clarence Thomas, and some would notice a pattern. (The Democrats' attempted borking of Thomas was one of the low moments of modern political history, one that I believe nearly all thinking Democrats are ashamed of.)

Granted, the nomination of Brown would be a long shot, but there is some strategic sense to it. A Gonzales nomination could be too much of a mine field for President Bush. Anything remotely liberal, and you can start calling President Bush a lame duck.