Amir Taheri on Iran

Amir Taheri has a cheery little piece for an Easter Sunday over at the Telegraph. He looks Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's apocolyptic religous beliefs, Iran's quite geopolitical moves in the Middle East, and what the coming months may hold in store for Iran's nuclear program. The piece confirms things that I've been reading for some time, some things going back to 2004. The article is must read, as it covers so many aspects of the Iranian story as to make it difficult to sufficiently summarize. I did want to quote one section of the story, though:

The Iranian plan is simple: playing the diplomatic game for another two years until Bush becomes a "lame-duck", unable to take military action against the mullahs, while continuing to develop nuclear weapons.

Thus do not be surprised if, by the end of the 12 days still left of the United Nations' Security Council "deadline", Ahmadinejad announces a "temporary suspension" of uranium enrichment as a "confidence building measure". Also, don't be surprised if some time in June he agrees to ask the Majlis (the Islamic parliament) to consider signing the additional protocols of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Such manoeuvres would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director, Muhammad El-Baradei, and Britain's Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, to congratulate Iran for its "positive gestures" and denounce talk of sanctions, let alone military action. The confidence building measures would never amount to anything, but their announcement would be enough to prevent the G8 summit, hosted by Russia in July, from moving against Iran.

Keep your eye on Iran to see if this the maneuver they try to make in the coming months. This is the least scary part of Taheri's piece. Go read the rest now.