A single primary/caucus day?

We aren't there yet, but things like this show that we may be moving in that direction.

The presidential nomination process in the Democratic and Republican parties is on the verge of being upended with a move by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic and Republican legislative leaders to shift next year’s California presidential primaries to February 5th. The move would totally alter the dynamic of the presidential campaign.

A bipartisan bill was introduced in the state Senate yesterday. The beneficiaries of the move will probably fall in one or more of several categories. Those who do very well in the earliest states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Those who are well known and very well funded. And those who are relatively liberal Democrats and more moderate Republicans.

The move would place California fifth on the calendar for the Democratic presidential nomination fight, following Iowa on January 14th, Nevada on January 19th, New Hampshire on January 22nd, and South Carolina on January 29th. (The NWN report on the Las Vegas event kicking off the Nevada presidential caucuses is below, with video.) The Republicans currently have Iowa and New Hampshire first and second, though other changes are in the air.

The current staggered calender of primaries and cuacuses allow for candidates with smaller campaign war chests to have a shot if they can do well in the early match ups. Unfortunately, it makes many of the later matchups irrelevant as money and support floods away from candidates who do not do well in early states, and it has been a long time since the later states have seen their primaries have meaning. I see more states looking to move their primary closer to the start of the season in an effort to seem meaningful again. The parties are probably not going to be able to stop this as they jostle for the ideological advantage some changes present, and the big monied candidates are probably not going to complain much, either, because they are going to maintain a huge advantage in a super primary or a highly condensed primary season.

Don't anticipate the change to happen quickly, because it won't. But do expect to see the primary season to start to condense over the next several presidential cycles. I wouldn't be surprised if 100 years from now, on National Primary Election Day, people look back in confusion on why we had this staggered system that made individual states so influential. It is just another step in Americans' movement away from asserting themselves through the state and instead directly with the Federal government. Unfortunately, I think we are reducing our influence with the Federal government by our disregard to the influence of the state.