Can Putin do the impossible and push Europe towards America?

It has whirled around the blogosphere-Vladamir Putin sounding like a 1930's Adolph Hitler, lamenting the fall of the Soviet Union and all of the ethnic Russians living within the borders of other nations. Everyone I've read has taken the two next steps-concern over how committed Putin is to democracy and peace, and how much this sounds like Hitler's public rationale for invading his neighbors in the late 1930's. But let's take yet another step and see the effects this may have.

First, this may perk some ears up in Western Europe, but it is going to have very little short term impact. Europe, despite hosting the Second World War, has been largely pacifist since 1919. A chill will go down Western Europe's spine, and then they'll roll over and try to appease Putin. Right now, they know they have very little to fear. Russia's military is too weak to be much of a threat to them, they have a half continent buffer, and they have the United States in case of an emergency.

In Eastern Europe, this is going to set of air raid sirens in the ears of national leaders, though. They've felt just how "benevolent" Russian rule is. With one sentence, Putin has driven his Eastern European neighbors even closer to the United States. Do not be surprised in nations like Ukraine become urgent in their desirte for NATO membership. Also do not be surprised if the United States begins to marginalize the uncooperative Western European members of NATO and lifts the status of Eastern European members. This east-west divide will make the EU an even more contentious body than it already is, and in the short term, I'd expect more anti-Americanism in Western Europe to rise.

Putin will continue to consolidate his power-we can probably take that as a given. If he can find a way to strengthen his military, or if he can use a relationship with China to tie the U.S. up in Asia, then expect to see Western Europe get very nervous and very friendly again toward the U.S. Hopefully, if events start to play out like this, Europe sees the writing on the wall sooner rather than later. My concern for the next twenty years is not terrorism. My concern for the next 20 years is Russia, China, and the relationship that begins to develop between the two of them. We should be doing everything in our power to disrupt that relationship now.

The great thing about making prognostications like these is that you are usually wrong. It only takes one bump in the road to take the whole world in another direction. In this case I hope I'm wrong, but the writing on the wall is flashing in neon.