We are moving into our second week of memogate. While I am all for pinning Dan Rather to the wall on this story, we need to start looking forward again, toward the coming day when this story dies down. This has been a heady time for conservatives and conservative blogs, starting with the RNC and leading into memogate. There are a few gray clouds forming on the horizon, though. I think the NIC report that has received broad coverage today is going to fade away, but some of the issues in it will play in this election. For instance, violence is going to continue to escalate in Iraq as we get closer and closer to possible elections. This is going to make Iraq look like a terrible mess again for Bush. With that, we are going to get back into the news cycle where the media wail and gnash their teeth over the "quagmire".
In a similar vein, civil war will be the catch phrase for the next month and a half. My suspicion is that civil war in Iraq is exactly what the NIC report calls it, a worst case scenario, and often worst case scenarios do not come to pass. Civil War requires two very well defined, opposing groups, with high levels of passionate anger towards one another. What we have in Iraq is one relatively small group of insurgents, led by foreigners, and a larger, fairly passive populace. I just don't see all the ingredients of civil war coming together. Still, we are going to get pounded and pounded with horror stories of possible civil war.
I still think that Bush is going to walk in this election. The Donks have just nominated too big a buffoon to win this election, barring some major, historic event between now and November 2. But this election is not over, and perhaps we best turn our attention towards things other than Rather.
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