Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Is Hillary really unbeatable?

According to Insight (HT TAM), White House strategists think she is unbeatable for 2008 and are trying to convince the President of that fact. The story is based completely on anonymous GOP sources so it is tough to put a lot of stock into it, but if that is the case, the President should get some new advisors.

Hillary Clinton is not a sure thing for the Presidency in 2008. She isn't even a sure thing for her own party's nomination in 2008. Hillary's supporters are loud and passionate, and I think that is why it appears that she has enough momentum to be a sure thing, but she doesn't have solid backing from the left. If you go to some of the harder left liberal blogs and message boards, you'll see that she does not have a great deal of support from the far left. In fact, I'd say that there is a certain amount of amnity towards her on the far left because she hasn't been anti-war enough for their tastes. It is going to take something radical on her part to get the far left to come behind her in force, and she will need the far left because they drive the Democratic party today. Her current support seems to be strongest with the standard Democrat, but she could risk that if she goes to far to appeal to the far left. And as much as she attempts to triangulate, I think she'll be susceptible to losing moderate Democrats if Republicans were to choose their candidate wisely.

Then there is what I'll call Hillary's "Tammy Wynette" trait, to coin a term. She has a habit of occasionally spitting out something that is out of rhythm with a lot of American people. As Ariana Huffington noted yesterday, Hillary has a tin ear that leads her into situations Bill Clinton never would have gotten into. When everybody starts gearing up for the presidential race in late 2007, Hillary will live with cameras in her face. She is going to have ample opportunity to show off that tin ear, and I fully expect her to do so. I also expect that it could derail her efforts to even get the nomination.

Saying that anyone is a sure bet for the presidency almost 3 years before the election even takes place is foolish, especially if that person is Hillary Clinton. Is she a big threat at this point to win the job? Certainly. She has her issues she has to deal with, though, and is anything but a lock.

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