Sunday, January 15, 2006

Is the next great war almost upon us?

In July I had shared my concerns that we may be in a restless period that precedes a great war, much like the situations the world faced in the 20 or so years prior to World War I. I also posted a Winston Churchill quote that is very applicable to our present and future. My concern about where we might be headed was very high in July. It is even higher now. There seem to be some indications that Europe and the United States do not have the will to remove the nuclear threat in Iran before it comes to full fruition. This is scary because Iran does not have the same outlook on life that the west does. Because of that, mutually assured destruction will not be able to prevent a nuclear exchange originating in Iran. If you don't think we live in a perilous age, go to the Telegraph and read historian Niall Ferguson's "The orgins of the Great War of 2007, and how it could have been prevented." Feguson applies a historian's mind to current events, and writes a fictional account that looks back on our current situation.

I know many Iraq War opponents will want to jump in here and somehow make this about Iraq. It isn't, and by trying to tie the two together, you may be obfuscating the one chance that exists to prevent a nuclear war started by Iran. If anything, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have given the United States the perfect platform to prevent Iran's nuclear ambitions from ever getting off the ground. Ambitions which, I might add, precede 9-11. History seems to be working against that, though. The anti-war movement's growth since the Vietnam Era has made this country politcally weary when it comes to the wise preventative use of warfare. Taking on Iran would be problematic and messy, and it does not appear that the United States will have the will to do this without the support of Europe, and Europe doesn't have the will for anything that cannot be cleanly completed in a 35 hour work week. History may look back on this as the world's latest failure to prevent what will seem in hindsight to be inevitable.

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