If you look back at Presidential elections in which a challenger defeats an incumbent, you'll see a basic trend. Controversy or a sharp political divide does guarantee the challengers victory. In fact, it doesn't mean much at all for the challenger. What means more is whether there is a deep dissatisfaction about America's direction across large portions of the country and across party lines, even. Clinton, Reagan, and Nixon faced a very divided political scene-they all won. Bush, Carter, and Ford faced deep dissatisfaction, and they lost.
This electorate, contrary to the claims of the Democrats, is not generally dissatisfied. Hard core Democrats are, but their displeasure falls into the political category. Large portions are pleased with Bush's direction on the war on terror. Other larger portions are pleased with the upward trend in the economy. Bush's domestic initiatives have a pretty flat effect. Unless Kerry taps into an unseen, deep vein of dissatisfaction, which he has tried and failed with on both the economy and the war, then he is going to lose going away.
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