Here's a post I meant to make on Tuesday:
Despite taking much personal satisfaction from Kerry's lack of bounce in the polls following the Democratic National Convention, I'm also not putting much weight into it. Because of the contested election in 2000, 9/11, and Iraq, I suspect this is one of the most personal presidential elections to voters in quite sometime. To me, that means the polls are worthless this time around. What I mean is that the vast majority of people have already made up their minds, and that isn't going to change. Those who haven't yet made up their minds are small in number, and probably also unreliable as 'likely voters'. The polls only importance is in perception. Neither side will want to fall very far behind because that will be a sure fire way to de-motivate the base, and both candidates desperately need their bases to turn out en force.
Despite taking much personal satisfaction from Kerry's lack of bounce in the polls following the Democratic National Convention, I'm also not putting much weight into it. Because of the contested election in 2000, 9/11, and Iraq, I suspect this is one of the most personal presidential elections to voters in quite sometime. To me, that means the polls are worthless this time around. What I mean is that the vast majority of people have already made up their minds, and that isn't going to change. Those who haven't yet made up their minds are small in number, and probably also unreliable as 'likely voters'. The polls only importance is in perception. Neither side will want to fall very far behind because that will be a sure fire way to de-motivate the base, and both candidates desperately need their bases to turn out en force.
On the record, I believe that on election day voters will break for Bush, giving him a 5 point victory in the popular vote, and a comfortable electoral victory. This will be the result of a small number of 'Bush/post 9-11 Democrats" and a de-motivated Deaniac wing of the Democratic party. Kerry may have their minds for now, but he's never had their hearts.
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