Friday, July 07, 2006

Potential act of war?

Where was North Korea's ill fated TD-2 missile aimed? Perhaps Hawaii:
A North Korean missile launched on Wednesday was aimed at an area of the ocean close to Hawaii, a Japanese newspaper reported on Friday.

Experts estimated the Taepodong-2 ballistic missile to have a range of up to 6,000 km, putting Alaska within its reach. Wednesday's launch apparently failed shortly after take-off and the missile landed in the sea between the Korean peninsula and Japan, a few hundred kilometres from the launch pad.


First North Korea has snubbed its nose at international protocols such as a notice to airmen and mariners. Still, while that made the launches aggressive, that did not make them an attack or an act of war. Had that missile held together and landed in U.S. waters off the coast of Hawaii, that would be damn close to an act of war on North Korea's part. But before we get overly aggressive on North Korea, it pays to remember one thing-North Korea may be the least desireable nation of the old Axis of Evil for us to interact with militarily. North Korea could drop a lot of artillery on Seoul with no warning, and there is little or nothing we could do about it. Even nuclear strikes on North Korean positions would conceivably be too late.

That is the big downside. Nobody wants to see artillery raining down on Seoul. If North Korea ever did that and attacked the South, though, their attack would likely be similar to the sting of a bee...suicidal. North Korea has a very large army, and they have a lot of equipment. But they do not have the means to keep that military supplied beyond a short engagement unless the Chinese blatantly supplied them. If Kim Jong Il ever completely falls of his rocker completely and triggers war on the Korean peninsula, do not be surprised if it is a brutal but short war.

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