The last debate

Well, I watched the debate tonight at the Col.'s house. I was excited to get back home and write about it. I hit a little detour on the way home. On the bypass around my hometown, I came upon a deer laying across my lane of traffic. I couldn't swerve because of traffic, and because of the curve it was in, I didn't see it in time to stop, so I hit a dead deer. That was bad enough, but my car came off of it with the front wheels off the ground, and when they hit the ground, the car jerked hard left. I though I was going off the road, which would have been fortunate, because the alternative was into traffic. I've since calmed down and cleaned the deer guts off the undercarriage of my car.

Enough about me. First let me congratulate John Kerry. One of you fine folks who came here from Salon must be part of his campaign, because I see he finally took my advice of poking a little fun at himself. Self deprecating humor softens a hard image, and he needed it. Unfortunately for him, he lost this debate.

I will concede this-both men gave their supporters (largely) what they wanted to hear tonight. Polls will probably break out to a 50-50 split on who won because of this. Bush was stylistically and substantively better than Kerry tonight, though. Kerry blubbered through almost the first half of the debate. Bush had the crooked grin and twinkle in the eye tonight. He brought his A game. I think most of the debate was a wash because both played heavily to their base, but I think a couple of things ultimately tip the scale in Bush's favor. First, one group that is still spongy and which was available to be swayed tonight was the independent white male. Kerry may have swayed them to Bush himself with his strong support of affirmative action. Affirmative action is not popular with this group because they feel that the cards are now being stacked against them, not that the playing field is being leveled. Like it or not, that's a fact, and while Kerry tried to shore up his support with minorities, he was much better off ducking that question. The second thing that probably swayed this debate to Bush was his style. Republican insiders thought that his support amongst security moms may have loosened a bit with his aggressive style at the town hall debate. Tonight he was at about his most charming. In addition, he came across as being deeply in love with Laura, and respectful to the point of being in awe of her with his answer to his last question. Kerry seemed to avoid talking glowingly about Teresa. He talked about his late mother, he complimented the Bush women, and then he tossed in remarks about Teresa almost as an afterthought. That may hurt him amongst women as well.

I would go into greater detailed analysis of the debate, but frankly, I need to sooth my nerves a bit more with an MGD. Col. Ollie made some great points during the debate that I hope he will elaborate on more tomorrow. I'll be back tomorrow as well more thoughts as we come down the stretch in this election.